Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
